Tiger Woods will go on and beat Jack Nickolaus record of 18 major victories based on his performance in the US Open Monday. Woods shot an even par round of 71 before winning in sudden death at the 91st hole of a weekend spent struggling around the golf course and through his golf swing. To achieve this feat shows that Tiger is almost indefatigable. Next year the US Open returns to Bethpage and in 2010 Pebble Beach, the home of Tiger's first 2 dominant US Open Wins. Further, the British Open in 2010 will also be at St Andrews where Tiger is undefeated at 2 attempts. Then there is 2 trips to the Masters and the PGA. It appears unlikely Woods will make this years British Open with some much needed R&R on the knee with the British Open in only 5 weeks. Throw in 3 PGA's and I believe Tiger will reach 19 majors before the end of 2010.
The current bet of the week is to take Sweden on betfair at $44 to win Euro 2008. Sweden need only a draw to get into the last 8 and are paying $1.55 to achieve at least this result. Russia meanwhile can only qualify if they win (Paying $2.40) yet are at $46 for the overall tournament. This indicates nominal odds should Sweden win of $28 which is unlikely to be available if that occurs. My advice therefore is to back Sweden at $46, lay the $1.54-$1.57 on Sweden qualifying for the same amount (offsetting all risk) and then lay-off the bet on the $44 at what should be much lower odds of around $21 rather than the nominal $28 if Sweden does win.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Monday, June 16, 2008
Super Tiger
Tiger Woods again showed why he the greatest clutch golfer in history with a sensational birdie putt on 18 ensuring he forces an 18 hole play off with the likable Rocco Mediate. Tiger is the ultimate entertainment machine. He may hit the occasional bad shot under pressure but he is always there in the finish with the clutch shot or the clutch putt.
Rocco Mediate played the round of his life on Sunday and I doubt he will be able to back it up two days in a row though he was entirely relaxed. It appeared he had given permission for NBC to record his conversations with caddy resulting in a great insight to the mind of a pro golfer.
3rd Round
4th Round
It is to be expected there will be a record crowd at today's play-off, effectively the most important single match in Tiger's career. All of the previous made for TV specials have drawn large crowds so imagine what we can expect with 2 such likable characters today. Tiger is 15-2 in play-offs, a record as formidable as any the game has seen. An 18 hole play-off should be made for prime time TV though, not for a local start time of 9am.
Rocco Mediate played the round of his life on Sunday and I doubt he will be able to back it up two days in a row though he was entirely relaxed. It appeared he had given permission for NBC to record his conversations with caddy resulting in a great insight to the mind of a pro golfer.
3rd Round
4th Round
It is to be expected there will be a record crowd at today's play-off, effectively the most important single match in Tiger's career. All of the previous made for TV specials have drawn large crowds so imagine what we can expect with 2 such likable characters today. Tiger is 15-2 in play-offs, a record as formidable as any the game has seen. An 18 hole play-off should be made for prime time TV though, not for a local start time of 9am.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
State of Origin and The NRL
It is time for a complete restructure of the NRL season. The farce that was the previous round of the NRL needs to be stamped out of a competition already struggling to put bums on seats and money in players pockets.
One of the first steps that needs to be undertaken is to return the competition to 22 rounds. As with the EPL's 39th game debacle, the NRL's expansion to 26 rounds has lead to complacency within clubs who are now willing to sell games to the highest bidder rather than catering to fans. The NRL is currently in a mid-season slump, the season has been going for 13 weeks but with all of the controversy it feels like an eternity. There is another 4 weeks until state of origin finishes the point at which all NRL clubs can focus on the run to the finals series. Until the run to the finals series most NRL fans are simply interested in their team surviving. This does not generate enough interest to help the code.
So what is the key alternative? First of all the season needs to be reduced back to 22 rounds. The next decision is whether to use split rounds or full bye rounds for state of origin. I would structure the season something like this.
Rounds 1-6
Mid-week International
Round 7-10
Bye Weekend (Friday Night State of Origin 1 - Wednesday Night State of Origin 2)
Round 11-12
Bye Weekend (State of Origin 3 - The Decider)
Round 13-22
This format leaves a 10 week uninterrupted run to the finals, only 2 bye weekends for all teams and the season being shortened by 2 weeks means that interest won't be lost in the mid-season lull. Every game will become that much more important. This will also shorten the season by 2 weeks allowing players an extended off-season.
Another feature of the 22 week season is the sporting integrity of the competition can be improved with a split into 4 divisions. American sport knows how to best implement this sort of structure and in the NRL it could be best worked with a split based on rivalries
Sydney East
St George
South Sydney
Sydney Roosters
Cronulla
Sydney West
Wests Tigers
Penrith
Parramatta
Canterbury
Queensland Division
Brisbane
Gold Coast
North Queensland
Melbourne (given their feeder clubs are in Brisbane)
Other
Manly
Newcastle
Canberra
New Zealand
Similar to the NFL, teams would play their own division opponents twice every year, play each other team once and on a 3 year cycle play teams from another division twice. Rather than a top 8, The winner of each division would qualify for the finals with the next best 4 teams making up the top 8. The finals would be played as they currently are under the McIntyre system. This system is quite similar to the seeded system used by the NRL through most of the last 20 years at least until 2 years ago when it was decided to structure the draw around rivalries. This system again uses rivalries as the basis for creating the draw but goes one step further in ensuring 1 team from each rivalry group is ensured a finals position. Further each team would play 22 games. If a Sydney club were to be forced to relocate to Central Coast they would swap with Manly who are rivals with almost all Sydney clubs.
Another set of rules that should be adopted are the pre-season rules which prevent organised training before certain dates. This would be as compensation to players in return for a reduction or long-term freeze in the salary cap. The recent rises to $4m have become unsustainable with the changes to NSW tax laws and anti-smoking legislation. In addition the reduction of 1 game may cost clubs additional revenue. It also appears ANZ Stadium at Homebush may be no longer willing to subsidise clubs. All of these will put long term pressure on clubs until the next NRL TV deal can be negotiated. As a result players should be compensated in other ways. The NRL also needs to increase its grants to clubs which are struggling. Training should be banned until at least November ensuring all players (except internationals who can be financially compensated seperately) get at least one month off plus all clubs should be forced to have 3 weeks off at Christmas.
One of the first steps that needs to be undertaken is to return the competition to 22 rounds. As with the EPL's 39th game debacle, the NRL's expansion to 26 rounds has lead to complacency within clubs who are now willing to sell games to the highest bidder rather than catering to fans. The NRL is currently in a mid-season slump, the season has been going for 13 weeks but with all of the controversy it feels like an eternity. There is another 4 weeks until state of origin finishes the point at which all NRL clubs can focus on the run to the finals series. Until the run to the finals series most NRL fans are simply interested in their team surviving. This does not generate enough interest to help the code.
So what is the key alternative? First of all the season needs to be reduced back to 22 rounds. The next decision is whether to use split rounds or full bye rounds for state of origin. I would structure the season something like this.
Rounds 1-6
Mid-week International
Round 7-10
Bye Weekend (Friday Night State of Origin 1 - Wednesday Night State of Origin 2)
Round 11-12
Bye Weekend (State of Origin 3 - The Decider)
Round 13-22
This format leaves a 10 week uninterrupted run to the finals, only 2 bye weekends for all teams and the season being shortened by 2 weeks means that interest won't be lost in the mid-season lull. Every game will become that much more important. This will also shorten the season by 2 weeks allowing players an extended off-season.
Another feature of the 22 week season is the sporting integrity of the competition can be improved with a split into 4 divisions. American sport knows how to best implement this sort of structure and in the NRL it could be best worked with a split based on rivalries
Sydney East
St George
South Sydney
Sydney Roosters
Cronulla
Sydney West
Wests Tigers
Penrith
Parramatta
Canterbury
Queensland Division
Brisbane
Gold Coast
North Queensland
Melbourne (given their feeder clubs are in Brisbane)
Other
Manly
Newcastle
Canberra
New Zealand
Similar to the NFL, teams would play their own division opponents twice every year, play each other team once and on a 3 year cycle play teams from another division twice. Rather than a top 8, The winner of each division would qualify for the finals with the next best 4 teams making up the top 8. The finals would be played as they currently are under the McIntyre system. This system is quite similar to the seeded system used by the NRL through most of the last 20 years at least until 2 years ago when it was decided to structure the draw around rivalries. This system again uses rivalries as the basis for creating the draw but goes one step further in ensuring 1 team from each rivalry group is ensured a finals position. Further each team would play 22 games. If a Sydney club were to be forced to relocate to Central Coast they would swap with Manly who are rivals with almost all Sydney clubs.
Another set of rules that should be adopted are the pre-season rules which prevent organised training before certain dates. This would be as compensation to players in return for a reduction or long-term freeze in the salary cap. The recent rises to $4m have become unsustainable with the changes to NSW tax laws and anti-smoking legislation. In addition the reduction of 1 game may cost clubs additional revenue. It also appears ANZ Stadium at Homebush may be no longer willing to subsidise clubs. All of these will put long term pressure on clubs until the next NRL TV deal can be negotiated. As a result players should be compensated in other ways. The NRL also needs to increase its grants to clubs which are struggling. Training should be banned until at least November ensuring all players (except internationals who can be financially compensated seperately) get at least one month off plus all clubs should be forced to have 3 weeks off at Christmas.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Socceroos Down Again
A disappointing 1-0 loss to the Socceroos in Dubai sees the threat of early elimination from the World Cup increase markedly. Again Australia showed an inability to handle the extreme conditions found in Asia an issue that is likely to prove concerning now that we are permanently entrenched there. The predictable weather of China, Japan and Korea is rarely found elsewhere on the continent with either humid warm weather found in most of the south-east or extreme heat and some humidity in the central and west Asia. A look at the likely qualifiers for the 2nd stage of qualifying shows that 3 of our potential opponents will come from the east (Nth Korea/Sth Korea/Japan), 5 from the west (Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Qatar, Bahrain) and Uzbekistan from the Central Asian steps (much cooler conditions). Bahrain remains the only team from West Asia the Socceroos have beaten away.
One of the key problems for the Socceroos seems to be an inability to score early in their games. In oppressive conditions an early lead can provide a major psychological boost but only against Qatar in the 1st rd have the Socceroos managed an early goal. This is a result I believe of negative tactics being employed by the current manager Pim Verbeek and a lack of preparation under Graham Arnold. Playing Harry Kewell one out at striker after 2 games in 3 months is not an effective way of employing the resources available. Scott Macdonald has looked threatening without creating any great chances in the previous 2 matches but I believe that eventually Scotty Mac will breakthrough and become a regular scorer at international level.
Jason Culina had one of his best games for the Socceroos in Dubai. He excelled in the conditions along with Brett Holman, not stopping at any stage and playing a part in most of the chances created by the Aussies. Attack is clearly our best strength so we need to play to that strength in the coming qualifiers. A draw with Qatar will all but guarantee qualification but we need to go out with a winning attitude to ensure the best result.
On a side note, Luke Wilkshire should be immediately barred from taking set pieces. I am yet to see him get a free kick on target across the 5 or 6 games he has been designated as set piece taker. The suspension of Grella could be a blessing as his light fram does not appear to handle the oppressive conditions and he will be the freshest player for the Chinese game in Sydney June 22.
My preferred squad (subs in brackets) would be:
Schwarzer
Wilkshire, Neill (North), Beauchamp, Carney
Emerton, Valeri (Carle), Culina, Kewell
Kennedy (Djite), Macdonald
In-Out
Kennedy - Coyne
Neill - North
Macdonald - Grella
One of the key problems for the Socceroos seems to be an inability to score early in their games. In oppressive conditions an early lead can provide a major psychological boost but only against Qatar in the 1st rd have the Socceroos managed an early goal. This is a result I believe of negative tactics being employed by the current manager Pim Verbeek and a lack of preparation under Graham Arnold. Playing Harry Kewell one out at striker after 2 games in 3 months is not an effective way of employing the resources available. Scott Macdonald has looked threatening without creating any great chances in the previous 2 matches but I believe that eventually Scotty Mac will breakthrough and become a regular scorer at international level.
Jason Culina had one of his best games for the Socceroos in Dubai. He excelled in the conditions along with Brett Holman, not stopping at any stage and playing a part in most of the chances created by the Aussies. Attack is clearly our best strength so we need to play to that strength in the coming qualifiers. A draw with Qatar will all but guarantee qualification but we need to go out with a winning attitude to ensure the best result.
On a side note, Luke Wilkshire should be immediately barred from taking set pieces. I am yet to see him get a free kick on target across the 5 or 6 games he has been designated as set piece taker. The suspension of Grella could be a blessing as his light fram does not appear to handle the oppressive conditions and he will be the freshest player for the Chinese game in Sydney June 22.
My preferred squad (subs in brackets) would be:
Schwarzer
Wilkshire, Neill (North), Beauchamp, Carney
Emerton, Valeri (Carle), Culina, Kewell
Kennedy (Djite), Macdonald
In-Out
Kennedy - Coyne
Neill - North
Macdonald - Grella
Nadal's French Open Domination
The end of the Roger Federer era is nigh. Rafael Nadal's complete humiliation of Roger Federer tonight (6-1 6-3 6-0) leaves Federer at his lowest point in 5 years. Nadal delivered an exhibition of unbeatable tennis that will double up on the psychological impact of Federer's slow start to the year. A victory at the Estoril Open in Portugal (7-6 1-2 walkover) is the only success found so far and going into Wimbledon with only one more tournament under his belt Rafael would have to be the bet of the year so far if his odds are anything over $2.50 for the fortnight.
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